Introduction
Evaluating the profitability of offshore wind projects requires close attention to cost-related indicators such as CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR.
However, in Japan’s designated Promotion Zones, publicly available cost data remain scarce, leaving investors and developers with limited information for decision-making.
In this article, we assess the Goto City Offshore Floating Wind, estimating CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR using the NEDO cost model, based on representative site conditions including distance to shore, water depth, and distance to port.
While these figures are independent estimates, they provide useful insights into the characteristics of this zone and a basis for relative comparison with other areas.
This article focuses not on project progress or policy background, but on the cost analysis. If you would like to learn more about the project overview of the Goto City Offshore Floating Wind Project, please see the article below.
👉 Goto City Offshore Floating Wind Project
1. Area Overview
- Area Name: Nagasaki Goto City Offshore
- Location: Southeast Offshore, Nagasaki
- Estimated Capacity: 16.8 MW
- Status: Promotion Zone
- Developer: Toda Corporation, ENEOS, Osaka Gas, INPEX, Kansai Electric Power, Chubu Electric Power
2. Assumptions (Representative Values)
In this article, the representative point was set at the center of the designated promotion area polygon based on its coordinates. Water depth and distance conditions were estimated using data from NeoWins.
| Item | Estimated Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Water Depth (m) | 131 m | Depth at representative point |
| Distance to Shore (km) | 7.0 km | Shortest distance to landfall point |
| Distance to Port (km) | 10.8 km | Straight-line distance to assumed O&M port |
3. CAPEX / OPEX Estimates
CAPEX and OPEX were independently estimated by DeepWind with reference to NEDO’s Offshore Wind Cost Model.
| Floating type | Estimated CAPEX | Estimated OPEX |
|---|---|---|
| Spar | USD 73 Million | USD 1 Million/year |
4. LCOE Estimate
The LCOE was independently estimated by DeepWind with reference to NEDO’s Offshore Wind Cost Model and NeoWins data.
| Floating type | Estimated LCOE |
|---|---|
| Spar | 198 USD/MWh |
5. IRR Estimate
| Price conditions | Estimated IRR | Power Selling Price | Assumed Operating Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bid Price | 9.3 % | 36 yen/kWh | 25 years |
6. Profitability Rating (DeepWind Independent Evaluation)
| Evaluation Metric | Score (★1–5) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability (Bid Price) | ★★★★ | Challenging |
| Overall Rating | A Rank | Although the LCOE is high due to the floating system, the bidding price is also high at 36 yen/kWh, making it profitable. |
Conclusion
In this article, we assessed the cost structure of the Goto City offshore floating wind project in Nagasaki, estimating profitability through CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR. While the floating foundation results in relatively high LCOE, the awarded price of 36 JPY/kWh provides sufficient profitability, leading to a favorable overall evaluation.
However, cost structures and site conditions differ significantly across Japan’s Promotion Zones. This assessment is therefore just one example, and relative comparisons with other zones are essential for understanding the broader investment landscape.
If you would like to compare the CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR of other Promotion Zones, please also check out this summary article.
🌊 Cost Analysis of Japan’s 12 Offshore Wind Promotion Zones
Explore more categories at DeepWind:
- 🔍Market Insights – Understand the latest trends and key topics in Japan’s offshore wind market
- 🏛️Policy & Regulations – Explore Japan’s legal frameworks, auction systems, and designated promotion zones.
- 🌊Projects – Get an overview of offshore wind projects across Japan’s coastal regions.
- 🛠️Technology & Innovation – Discover the latest technologies and innovations shaping Japan’s offshore wind sector.
- 💡Cost Analysis – Dive into Japan-specific LCOE insights and offshore wind cost structures.
