Introduction
Evaluating the profitability of offshore wind projects requires close attention to cost-related indicators such as CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR.
However, in Japan’s designated Promotion Zones, publicly available cost data remain scarce, leaving investors and developers with limited information for decision-making.
In this article, we assess the Akita Yurihonjo Offshore Wind, estimating CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR using on DeepWind’s proprietary cost model which references the NEDO cost model and international benchmarks, based on representative site conditions including distance to shore, water depth, and distance to port.
While these figures are independent estimates, they provide useful insights into the characteristics of this zone and a basis for relative comparison with other areas.
This article focuses not on project progress or policy background, but on the cost analysis. If you would like to learn more about the project overview of the Akita Yurihonjo Offshore Wind Project, please see the article below.
👉 Akita Yurihonjo Offshore Wind Project
| Revision History |
| Nov. 2025: Updated CAPEX&OPEX model and LCOE&IRR recalculation. |
1. Area Overview
- Area Name: Akita Yurihonjo Offshore
- Location: Southwest Offshore, Akita
- Estimated Capacity: 840 MW
- Status: Promotion Zone
2. Assumptions (Representative Values)
In this article, the representative point was set at the center of the designated promotion area polygon based on its coordinates. Water depth and distance conditions were estimated using data from NeoWins.
| Item | Estimated Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Water Depth (m) | 19 m | Depth at representative point |
| Distance to Shore (km) | 2.0 km | Shortest distance to landfall point |
| Distance to Port (km) | 7 km | Straight-line distance to assumed O&M port |
3. CAPEX / OPEX Estimates
CAPEX and OPEX were independently estimated by DeepWind with reference to JWPA’s developer survey results and international benchmarks.
| Foundation type | Estimated CAPEX | Estimated OPEX |
|---|---|---|
| Monopile | Approx. JPY 693 B | Approx. JPY 11.6 B per year |
4. LCOE Estimate
The LCOE was independently estimated by DeepWind with reference to NEDO’s Offshore Wind Cost Model (October 2024) and NeoWins data.
| Foundation type | Gross CF | WACC | Estimated LCOE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monopile | 38% | 3% | 22.5 JPY/kWh |
5. IRR Estimate
| Price conditions | Estimated IRR | Assumed Power Selling Price | Assumed Operating Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modeled Price (using market transactions or corporate PPAs) | 4.3 % | 25 yen/kWh | 25 years |
6. Profitability Rating (DeepWind Independent Evaluation)
| Evaluation Metric | Score (★1–5) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability (Modeled Price) | ★★★ | Moderate |
| Overall Rating | B Rank | Near the breakeven line; cost reduction and policy support required. |
Conclusion
The Akita Yurihonjo Offshore Wind Promotion Zone highlights both opportunities and constraints from a cost perspective. With shallow waters and close proximity to shore and port, the site enjoys favorable physical conditions. However, at the modeled price, project IRR is close to breakeven level. By contrast, under an expected market or corporate PPA price scenario, the IRR rises, showing that the project’s viability hinges on cost reductions, supportive policies, and flexible offtake structures.
DeepWind will continue to provide independent cost analyses of Japan’s offshore wind promotion zones, offering investors and developers practical insights for comparing project opportunities and understanding the evolving economics of the market.
If you would like to compare the CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR of other Promotion Zones, please also check out this summary article.
🌊 Cost Analysis of Japan’s 12 Offshore Wind Promotion Zones
Weekly digest with actionable insights for investors, developers, and stakeholders in Japan’s offshore wind. 🎁 Welcome gift: Japan Offshore Wind: 2025 Market Outlook (PDF)📩 DeepWind Weekly
- 🔍Market Insights – Understand the latest trends and key topics in Japan’s offshore wind market
- 🏛️Policy & Regulations – Explore Japan’s legal frameworks, auction systems, and designated promotion zones.
- 🌊Projects – Get an overview of offshore wind projects across Japan’s coastal regions.
- 🛠️Technology & Innovation – Discover the latest technologies and innovations shaping Japan’s offshore wind sector.
- 💡Cost Analysis – Dive into Japan-specific LCOE insights and offshore wind cost structures.
