Introduction
Evaluating the profitability of offshore wind projects requires close attention to cost-related indicators such as CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR.
However, in Japan’s designated Promotion Zones, publicly available cost data remain scarce, leaving investors and developers with limited information for decision-making.
In this article, we assess the Akita Noshiro Mitane Oga Offshore Wind, estimating CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR using on DeepWind’s proprietary cost model which references the NEDO cost model and international benchmarks, based on representative site conditions including distance to shore, water depth, and distance to port.
While these figures are independent estimates, they provide useful insights into the characteristics of this zone and a basis for relative comparison with other areas.
This article focuses not on project progress or policy background, but on the cost analysis. If you would like to learn more about the project overview of the Akita Noshiro Mitane Oga Offshore Wind Project, please see the article below.
👉 Akita Noshiro Mitane Oga Offshore Wind Power Project
| Revision History |
| Nov. 2025: Updated CAPEX&OPEX model and LCOE&IRR recalculation. |
1. Area Overview
- Area Name: Akita Noshiro Mitane Oga Offshore
- Location: Northwest Offshore, Akita
- Estimated Capacity: Approx. 495 MW
- Status: Promotion Zone
2. Assumptions (Representative Values)
In this article, the representative point was set at the center of the designated promotion area polygon based on its coordinates. Water depth and distance conditions were estimated using data from NeoWins.
| Item | Estimated Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Water Depth (m) | 19 m | Depth at representative point |
| Distance to Shore (km) | 2.0 km | Shortest distance to landfall point |
| Distance to Port (km) | 13 km | Straight-line distance to assumed O&M port |
3. CAPEX / OPEX Estimates
DeepWind independently calculated CAPEX and OPEX based on JWPA’s developer survey results and relevant international benchmarks.
| Foundation type | Estimated CAPEX | Estimated OPEX |
|---|---|---|
| Monopile_Fixed | Approx. JPY 399 B | Approx. JPY 6.8 B per year |
4. LCOE Estimate
The LCOE was independently estimated by DeepWind with reference to NEDO’s Offshore Wind Cost Model (October 2024) and NeoWins data.
| Foundation type | Gross CF | WACC | Estimated LCOE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monopile_Fixed | 37% | 3% | 23.2 JPY/kWh |
5. IRR Estimate
| Price conditions | Estimated IRR | Assumed Power Selling Price | Assumed Operating Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modeled Price | 3.9 % | 25 JPY/kWh | 25 years |
6. Profitability Rating (DeepWind Independent Evaluation)
| Evaluation Metric | Score (★1–5) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability (Expected Price) | ★★ | Challenging |
| Overall Rating | C Rank | Low investment appeal; subsidies or regulatory support assumed. |
Conclusion
The Akita Noshiro Mitane Oga Offshore Wind Promotion Zone demonstrates both potential and challenges from a cost perspective. Although the site conditions are relatively favorable, the analysis revealed that the project would still struggle to achieve profitability at the assumed offtake price. As indicated by the estimated CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR, ensuring profitability will likely require a combination of institutional support mechanisms and market-based schemes such as corporate PPAs.
DeepWind will continue to provide independent cost analyses of Japan’s offshore wind promotion zones, offering investors and developers practical insights for comparing project opportunities and understanding the evolving economics of the market.
If you would like to compare the CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR of other Promotion Zones, please also check out this summary article.
🌊 Cost Analysis of Japan’s 12 Offshore Wind Promotion Zones
Weekly digest with actionable insights for investors, developers, and stakeholders in Japan’s offshore wind. 🎁 Welcome gift: Japan Offshore Wind: 2025 Market Outlook (PDF)📩 DeepWind Weekly
- 🔍Market Insights – Understand the latest trends and key topics in Japan’s offshore wind market
- 🏛️Policy & Regulations – Explore Japan’s legal frameworks, auction systems, and designated promotion zones.
- 🌊Projects – Get an overview of offshore wind projects across Japan’s coastal regions.
- 🛠️Technology & Innovation – Discover the latest technologies and innovations shaping Japan’s offshore wind sector.
- 💡Cost Analysis – Dive into Japan-specific LCOE insights and offshore wind cost structures.
