Introduction
Evaluating the profitability of offshore wind projects requires close attention to cost-related indicators such as CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR.
However, in Japan’s designated Promotion Zones, publicly available cost data remain scarce, leaving investors and developers with limited information for decision-making.
In this article, we assess the Hokkaido Matsumae Offshore Wind Project, estimating CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR using on DeepWind’s proprietary cost model which references the NEDO cost model and international benchmarks, based on representative site conditions including distance to shore, water depth, and distance to port.
While these figures are independent estimates, they provide useful insights into the characteristics of this zone and a basis for relative comparison with other areas.
This article focuses not on project progress or policy background, but on the cost structure. If you would like to learn more about the project overview of the Matsumae Offshore Wind Farm, please see the article below.
👉 Hokkaido Matsumae Offshore Wind Power Project
| Revision History |
| Nov. 2025: Updated CAPEX&OPEX model and LCOE&IRR recalculation. |
1. Area Overview
- Area Name: Matsumae Offshore
- Location: Southwest Offshore, Hokkaido
- Estimated Capacity: 315 MW
- Status: Designated Promotion Zone
- Potential Developer: Kansai Electric Power Co.
2. Assumptions (Representative Values)
In this article, the representative point was set at the center of the designated promotion area polygon based on its coordinates.
Water depth and distance conditions were estimated using data from NeoWins.
| Item | Estimated Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Water Depth (m) | 29 m | Depth at representative point |
| Distance to Shore (km) | 0.5 km | Shortest distance to landfall point |
| Distance to Port (km) | 14 km | Straight-line distance to assumed O&M port |
3. CAPEX / OPEX Estimates
CAPEX and OPEX were independently estimated by DeepWind with reference to JWPA’s developer survey results and international benchmarks.
| Foundation Type | Estimated CAPEX | Estimated OPEX |
|---|---|---|
| Monopile | Approx. JPY 261 B | Approx. JPY 4.4 B per year |
| Jacket | Approx. JPY 334 B | Approx. JPY 4.4 B per year |
4. LCOE Estimate
The LCOE was independently estimated by DeepWind with reference to NEDO’s Offshore Wind Cost Model (October 2024) and NeoWins data.
| Foundation Type | Gross CF | WACC | Estimated LCOE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monopile | 43% | 3% | 20.3 JPY/kWh |
| Jacket | 43% | 3% | 24.7 JPY/kWh |
5. IRR Estimate
| Foundation Type | Estimated IRR | Assumed Power Selling Price | Assumed Operating Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monopile | 5.5 % | 25 JPY/kWh | 25 years |
| Jacket | 3.1 % | 25 JPY/kWh | 25 years |
6. Profitability Rating (DeepWind Independent Evaluation)
| Evaluation Metric | Score (★1–5) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability | ★★★ー★★★★ | ModerateーAttractive |
| Overall Rating | BーA Rank | High investment potential; profitability achievable depending on site conditions (port and grid distance, etc.). (Profitability decreases in the case of jacket foundations.) |
Conclusion
The Hokkaido Matsumae Offshore Wind Project benefits from favorable wind conditions, ensuring strong annual power generation potential.
However, as parts of the area have water depths of 50–60 meters, the potential adoption of jacket foundations could significantly impact investment feasibility.
Future developments in the public tender process and the selection of project developers will be important to watch.
If you would like to compare the CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR of other Promotion Zones, please also check out this summary article.
🌊 Cost Analysis of Japan’s 12 Offshore Wind Promotion Zones
Weekly digest with actionable insights for investors, developers, and stakeholders in Japan’s offshore wind. 🎁 Welcome gift: Japan Offshore Wind: 2025 Market Outlook (PDF)📩 DeepWind Weekly
- 🔍Market Insights – Understand the latest trends and key topics in Japan’s offshore wind market
- 🏛️Policy & Regulations – Explore Japan’s legal frameworks, auction systems, and designated promotion zones.
- 🌊Projects – Get an overview of offshore wind projects across Japan’s coastal regions.
- 🛠️Technology & Innovation – Discover the latest technologies and innovations shaping Japan’s offshore wind sector.
- 💡Cost Analysis – Dive into Japan-specific LCOE insights and offshore wind cost structures.
