Published: October 27, 2026 | Updated: October 27, 2026
FLOATING WIND
Tokyo Gas has abandoned its floating wind pilot off Fukushima, Nikkei reported on 26 October. For anyone planning around Japanese floating wind, it tests whether the step before commercial scale can be taken without the state. Floating wind places turbines on moored platforms instead of seabed foundations. The plan was two 15 MW-class turbines, 30 MW in total, about 20 km off the towns of Naraha and Tomioka, targeting operation in 2027. The reported reason is rising construction costs. Thirteen days earlier, Tokyo Gas had announced design approval for a Principle Power floater for 15 MW-class turbines. In July, Japan’s energy agency said it would consider a demonstration project of about 300 MW as a bridge to commercial floating wind. In DeepWind’s reading, the step before commercial scale now depends largely on the state.
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The 13 October Approval in Principle confirmed the floater concept is feasible. Whether two units can be built in Japanese water at a recoverable cost is a different test. By the reported account, the pilot failed the second one.
The energy agency’s July paper lists a demonstration of about 300 MW as the bridge to commercialisation, still under consideration. The step before commercial scale is being designed around size and public money.
Nikkei reports the company will review its floating plans against government support measures and construction cost trends. A restart off Fukushima has not been ruled out.
What was reported: a 2 x 15 MW plan for 2027, abandoned in October 2026
Tokyo Gas and its local partner, Shinobuyama Fukushima Power, gave up on the project by 26 October, the regional paper Fukushima Minyu reported. The paper says the two companies judged that the project would not be profitable. Nikkei attributes the decision to rising construction costs.
As of 27 October, Tokyo Gas had not published a press release on the decision. The cancellation and its cause therefore rest on press reports. The project details come from the 2023 announcement and the environmental impact assessment, the statutory process for studying and disclosing environmental effects before construction.
| Project / Area | Naraha-Tomioka offshore floating wind project (provisional name) |
|---|---|
| Location | About 20 km off Naraha and Tomioka, Fukushima Prefecture |
| Capacity | 2 x 15 MW-class turbines, 30 MW |
| Developers | Tokyo Gas, Shinobuyama Fukushima Power |
| Status | Reported abandoned (October 2026). No company announcement found as of 27 October |
| Foundation type | Floating. The 2023 announcement named Principle Power floating technology |
| Key execution issue | Rising construction costs (reported). No breakdown published |
| Key commercial issue | Recovering construction cost over two units. Revenue basis not found in public documents |
The project went public in February 2023. The scoping document, the first stage of the assessment, was filed the same day, with briefings in both towns. In October 2023, the industry minister’s formal opinion on that document asked the developers to define the turbine scale and foundation design as clearly as possible.
Nikkei adds that Tokyo Gas will focus on fixed-bottom projects in other waters for now. Its fixed-bottom project off Yuza, Yamagata, developed with Marubeni and others, is expected to continue.
Why a 13 October design approval did not save a 30 MW pilot
On 13 October, Tokyo Gas and Principle Power announced an Approval in Principle (AiP) for WindFloat TC, a semi-submersible floater for 15 MW-class turbines. The reviewer was ClassNK, Japan’s classification society, which sets and checks safety rules for ships and offshore structures. An AiP is a design-stage review. The reviewer checks drawings against its rules and confirms the concept can work. It does not approve a built unit.
Tokyo Gas has invested in Principle Power since 2020. Its 2023 Fukushima announcement also named Principle Power’s floating technology. The October release does not say whether the approved design was intended for the Fukushima site.
The two events answer different questions. The AiP addressed whether the floater works in Japanese conditions. The cancellation report addresses whether two units, built now in Japanese water, can recover their cost. Clearing the first gate does not open the second.
The second floating exit off Naraha: Fukushima FORWARD cost about ¥60 billion
These waters have hosted floating wind before. After the 2011 earthquake, the industry ministry commissioned the Fukushima FORWARD demonstration about 20 km off Naraha. A consortium led by Marubeni installed three floating turbines (2 MW, 7 MW and 5 MW) and a floating substation.
The programme reportedly cost around ¥60 billion. In 2020, the government decided to dismantle it because it could not be run profitably, according to Kyodo News. The Tokyo Gas plan was a separate, privately led project.
The two cases differ in purpose. FORWARD tested several floater types and was designed as research. Still, both ended the same way. Neither found a path to recover floating wind costs over a handful of turbines. Our case studies of floating demonstrations trace how other projects made, or missed, that transition.
From 30 MW to 300 MW: where Japan’s floating ladder stands in October 2026
Japan’s floating wind pathway is built in stages, most of them anchored in state-funded demonstrations. A July 2026 paper from the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy set out the next steps in time and scale.
| Stage | Example | Scale | Main funding | Status (Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early state demonstration | Fukushima FORWARD | 3 units: 2, 7 and 5 MW | Ministry contract (about ¥60bn, reported) | Dismantled as unprofitable (reported) |
| Small commercial project | Goto City | 8 x 2.1 MW, 16.8 MW | Feed-in tariff, ¥36/kWh | Commercial operation since January 2026 |
| Private pilot | Tokyo Gas, Shinobuyama Fukushima Power | 2 x 15 MW-class, 30 MW | Developers | Reported abandoned |
| State demonstration, Phase 2 | Southern Akita; Tahara-Toyohashi, Aichi | 12-15 MW-class (planned: 2 in Akita, 1 in Aichi) | Green Innovation Fund, ¥85bn floating demo budget | Under way |
| Harsh-environment demonstration | Prefectures proposing sites now | Area for 5+ turbines | Green Innovation Fund | Planned 2027-2032; site information due 30 October |
| Mid-scale demonstration | Not decided | About 300 MW | Not decided | Under consideration |
The Green Innovation Fund is a long-term state fund for decarbonisation technology and demonstration. It has allocated ¥123.5 billion to cutting offshore wind costs. A feed-in tariff (FIT) is a fixed price at which the grid buys power over a long contract.
Only two rows sit outside the state demonstration track: Goto and the Tokyo Gas pilot. Goto reached commercial operation with eight turbines and a fixed tariff. The two-unit Tokyo Gas pilot has reportedly stopped. Meanwhile, the government is weighing a 300 MW demonstration as its bridge to commercial floating wind. That is ten times the size of the private attempt.
Nikkei says Tokyo Gas will review its floating plans in light of government support measures and construction costs. The developer, too, appears to expect public support for the next step.
Why two floating units struggle to carry fixed costs: DeepWind’s reading
The reports do not break down the costs behind the decision. What follows is DeepWind analysis.
Many floating wind costs do not scale with turbine count. Site surveys, environmental assessment, the export cable and grid connection, port preparation and vessel mobilisation all fall into this group. A two-unit pilot must recover most of them from the output of just two turbines.
Rising construction costs expose that weakness directly. Steel, vessels and labour get more expensive for every project. A larger array can share its fixed costs across many turbines; a two-unit pilot cannot. If that is where the numbers broke, the problem lay in the project’s scale, not its floater.
Small-scale floating economics look hard even at Goto, which is operating. DeepWind’s Viability Simulator (October 2026 version) estimates Goto’s 16.8 MW at about ¥1.44 million per kW. Its levelised cost of energy (LCOE, lifetime cost per unit of power) comes to ¥48.9/kWh. That is a real-terms figure at a 3.0% real WACC (the blended return paid to lenders and investors) over 30 years. Goto sells at a fixed ¥36/kWh FIT, which is not indexed to inflation. Turbine sizes differ, so the figures do not transfer to the Tokyo Gas plan. But Goto spreads fixed costs over eight units; a two-unit pilot has even fewer. Assumptions are set out in our floating cost structure analysis.
Four things to watch after the Fukushima exit
1. A formal explanation from Tokyo Gas and Shinobuyama Fukushima Power. Reports cite construction costs but give no breakdown. Whether the companies withdraw the environmental assessment will also show how final the decision is.
2. Candidate sites for the harsh-environment demonstration. Prefectures must submit site information by 30 October. The criteria include an area deeper than 500 metres. Applicants must also show they can secure about 240 MW of adjacent area within a few years. We read the criteria in detail in the 500-metre demonstration analysis.
3. Whether the 300 MW demonstration becomes a budget line. The energy agency says it will decide based on progress and market conditions. When its size, funding and selection method are set, private investors will know what they are planning around.
4. Where WindFloat TC goes next. An approved design becomes a project only when it is matched to a site. With Fukushima off the table, that site has not been named.
Japan’s step from floating demonstration to commercial scale is becoming too large for small private pilots.
The Tokyo Gas plan was one of the few attempts to build 15 MW-class floating units outside the state demonstration programme. It reportedly stopped on cost days after its floater cleared design review. The barrier it exposed is the combination of scale and cost, separate from technical maturity. The step Japan now plans before commercial scale is about 300 MW, ten times what the private pilot attempted.
Suppliers and contractors weighing floating wind investments should consider aligning their plans with the state demonstration timeline. The harsh-environment programme runs 2027 to 2032, and the 300 MW step is still under consideration. Plans that count on small private pilots as a stepping stone deserve caution. At today’s construction costs, the reported Fukushima outcome shows no path for a two-unit project to recover its costs.
Related DeepWind Articles
- Deepwater Offshore Wind in Japan: The 500-Metre Demonstration Requirement
- Floating Offshore Wind in Japan: The 20 kW to 2 MW Gap Behind Domestic Supply Chains
- Floating Offshore Wind Cost Structure and LCOE Reality
- From Demonstration to Commercialization: Floating Offshore Wind Case Studies
- BP’s Reported Exit from 450 MW Yuza: Why Winning Japan’s Auction Is Not the Same as Getting Financed
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