Introduction
Evaluating the profitability of offshore wind projects requires close attention to cost-related indicators such as CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR.
However, in Japan’s designated Promotion Zones, publicly available cost data remain scarce, leaving investors and developers with limited information for decision-making.
In this article, we assess the Nigata Murakami Tainai Offshore Wind, estimating CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR using the NEDO cost model, based on representative site conditions including distance to shore, water depth, and distance to port.
While these figures are independent estimates, they provide useful insights into the characteristics of this zone and a basis for relative comparison with other areas.
This article focuses not on project progress or policy background, but on the cost analysis. If you would like to learn more about the project overview of the Nigata Murakami Tainai Offshore Wind Project, please see the article below.
👉 Nigata Murakami Tainai Offshore Wind
1. Area Overview
- Area Name: Nigata Murakami City and Tainai City Offshore
- Location: Northwest Offshore, Nigata
- Estimated Capacity: 684 MW
- Status: Promotion Zone
- Developer: MITSUI & CO, RWE, Osaka Gas
2. Assumptions (Representative Values)
In this article, the representative point was set at the center of the designated promotion area polygon based on its coordinates. Water depth and distance conditions were estimated using data from NeoWins.
| Item | Estimated Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Water Depth (m) | 25 m | Depth at representative point |
| Distance to Shore (km) | 2.4 km | Shortest distance to landfall point |
| Distance to Port (km) | 10.9 km | Straight-line distance to assumed O&M port |
3. CAPEX / OPEX Estimates
CAPEX and OPEX were independently estimated by DeepWind with reference to NEDO’s Offshore Wind Cost Model.
| Foundation type | Estimated CAPEX | Estimated OPEX |
|---|---|---|
| Monopile | USD 1800 Million | USD 31 Million/year |
4. LCOE Estimate
The LCOE was independently estimated by DeepWind with reference to NEDO’s Offshore Wind Cost Model and NeoWins data.
| Foundation type | Estimated LCOE |
|---|---|
| Monopile | 111 USD/MWh |
5. IRR Estimate
| Price conditions | Estimated IRR | Power Selling Price | Assumed Operating Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected Price (using market transactions or corporate PPAs) | 7.7 % | 18 yen/kWh | 25 years |
6. Profitability Rating (DeepWind Independent Evaluation)
| Evaluation Metric | Score (★1–5) | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability (Expected Price) | ★★ | Challenging |
| Overall Rating | C Rank | Profitability is somewhat low and would require technical and regulatory support as a prerequisite. |
Conclusion
In this analysis of the Niigata Murakami–Tainai offshore wind Promotion Zone, the estimated LCOE was 111 USD/MWh and the IRR reached 7.7% under an assumed power price of 18 JPY/kWh. These figures suggest moderate profitability, leading to an overall C-rank evaluation—a project with potential, but one that will rely on further cost reductions and supportive policies to enhance its viability.
While the site benefits from relatively favorable conditions such as shallow waters and reasonable distances to shore and port, economic competitiveness remains a challenge compared with Japan’s most attractive zones.
DeepWind will continue to deliver independent cost assessments of Japan’s offshore wind promotion zones, helping investors and developers benchmark opportunities and better understand the market’s evolving economics.
If you would like to compare the CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE, and IRR of other Promotion Zones, please also check out this summary article.
🌊 Cost Analysis of Japan’s 12 Offshore Wind Promotion Zones
Explore more categories at DeepWind:
- 🔍Market Insights – Understand the latest trends and key topics in Japan’s offshore wind market
- 🏛️Policy & Regulations – Explore Japan’s legal frameworks, auction systems, and designated promotion zones.
- 🌊Projects – Get an overview of offshore wind projects across Japan’s coastal regions.
- 🛠️Technology & Innovation – Discover the latest technologies and innovations shaping Japan’s offshore wind sector.
- 💡Cost Analysis – Dive into Japan-specific LCOE insights and offshore wind cost structures.
